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I like both, and I like them in different ways because they do have different vibes.
I know a few Kaias but no Kayas (although I think one of the American Girls characters was named Kaya...)
I don't think it will be too popular... I'm not really sure though.
I think I like Kaia best. I say KAI-ah... a longer "kai" sound than KY-ah but without a prominent "y" sound in the last syllable. KAHY-ah is maybe closest to how I say it?
I don't think it looks creative. Any spelling beyond the traditional/commonly accepted ones will be seen as a trendy or creative spelling, but I think Kaia and Kaya are on the "not-creative" side of the line.